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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Fingal Bay (above) remains on a mark of 149 following the Challow Hurdle
PICTURE: EDWARD WHITAKERWin for Fingal Bay does little to boost reputation
Fingal Bay kept his unbeaten record intact but probably didn't enhance his already lofty reputation when beating Ballyrock by a hard-fought length in the five-runner Bathwick Tyres Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.
Going into the Grade 2 event on a figure of 149 after impressing at Chepstow, Cheltenham and Sandown, Fingal Bay looked to have a straightforward task at Newbury against four oppenents who, though all winners last time out, had been contesting bog-standard novice races.
Fingal Bay never looked likely to lose his 100 per cent record but he had to be kept up to his work all the way to the line to see off the persistent Ballyrock, though in fairness Fingal Bay was almost certainly idling in front.
Another novice who is rated in the high 140s is the Irish-trained Sea Of Thunder, who was pulling away in style when falling at the last at Cheltenham's mid-December meeting.
Since then the ‘winner' Deireadh Re and the runner-up Rev It Up have both been successful in handicap company and I have raised the original level of form by 5lb, meaning that Sea of Thunder would be a minimum of 144 on the assumption he would have won by only the seven-length margin he was clear at the time, though he was still travelling strongly and a rating closer to Fingal Bay's would seem more appropriate.
I BET YOU DIDN'T KNOW THIS...
Here are a couple of bits of trivia to start 2012, writes Dave Dickinson.
When was Celestial Halo last beaten in a handicap? The answer is at York in August of his three-year-old career prior to finishing seventh in that year's St Leger.
Partlyas a consequence of being three wins from three starts in handicap hurdles after his game success in Saturday's Totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle at Newbury comes a second piece of trivia. What was the last horse to give Celestial Halo weight and beat him over hurdles? Well, unless you count Sentry Duty at Doncaster in February 2008, when Celestial Halo was effectively conceding 7lb factoring in the 10lb weight-for-age allowance,nothing ever has.
Twice in the frame in Champion Hurdles, Celestial Halo has often seemed below the very best at level weights, but these handicap wins off 165 in 2009 (he beat Binocular into third when runner-up in the Champion Hurdle earlier that year), and twice off 160 this season are a testament to his continuing class and enthusiasm.
I have used Ubi Ace as my benchmark for his latest victory and put Celestial Halo back up to his highest winning mark of 165, both placed horses running cracking trials for February's Totesport Trophy. The runner-up, Torphichen, who was returning to hurdling for the first time in close to two years, is ideally suited by such testing ground. Third-home Ubi Ace really caught the eye with some immaculate hurdling and it is entirely possible that this lightly-raced hurdler would be better suited by a slightly less testing surface.
Entries for the Totesport are next week and just maybe the first three on Saturday will lock horns at the Berkshire course again.
HENDERSON CHASERS SHOWING SPRINTING SPEED!
The Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on December 27 was a thrilling race to watch, and despite the eventful nature of the race the right horse won, writes Mark Olley.
The pace was very steady and coming to four out Oiseau de Nuit was leading, but the 'big two', Finian's Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking, were travelling ominously well just behind. The complexion of the race changed at this point as both made serious blunders. Wishfull Thinking was the first to recover and a big jump at thelast looked to have the race won for Philip Hobbs' charge, but Finian's Rainbow, who had been given plenty of time to recover by Barry Geraghty, swept by on the outside to win a shade cosily.
The race was fairly straightforward from a handicapping point of view as the third and fourth, Oiseau de Nuit (152) and Takeroc (145), had five lengths between them and with the formerconceding 2lb they finished exactly as the pre-race figures suggested. The steady pace and jumping errors prevented the front two from pulling as far clear from this duo as I would have expected and as a consequence I have left Finian's Rainbow on his pre-race figure of 157.
It was lovely to see Wishfull Thinking return to form after a couple of below-par efforts this term. However, I still had him running 8lb below last season's peak and have dropped him 2lb to a new mark of 162.
Finian's Rainbow reportedly needed this reappearance and Captain Chris, in last season's Arkle, is still the only horse to have finished in front of Nicky Henderson's top-class chaser since he switched to fences. I willbe amazed if we have seen the best of Finian's Rainbow yet and I expect him to be capable of higher ratings when he tackles the best 2m chasers in stronger-run races.
On the same Kempton card was the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices' Chase and this was basically a match between last season's Champion Hurdle runner-up Peddlers Cross and exciting chase recruit Sprinter Sacre. A blunder at the first from Peddlers Cross handed the early advantage to Sprinter Sacre and Donald McCain's gelding was always on the back foot from that point. Several great leaps from Sprinter Sacre heaped on the pressure and Nicky Henderson's six-year-old ran out a clear cut and hugely impressive winner.
One hundred and sixty is the best figure that Peddlers Cross has achieved in his three chases to date and means his first published chase rating is 10lb lower than his current hurdle mark of 170. It is very hard to put an accurate figure on what Sprinter Sacre has achieved over fences so far, with two wide-margin wins, so at this stage he has a figure of 161. He will be kept to novice company for his next run over fences (he needs to have run three times over fences to be eligible to run in a class 2 or above handicap chase) and hopefully we can pin down a more accurate figure then.
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