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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Al in the ascendancy in Charlie Hall
THERE were no fewer than three meetings on Saturday that staged either graded or Listed action and all feature in this week's blog. Weird Al predictably takes top billing following hisstep up the chasing ladder in the Charlie Hall, and John de Moraville gives his view on the eight-year-old's prospects of toppling Long Run later in the season.
WEIRD AL COMES OF AGE
Weird Al staked an early claim to Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup glory with Saturday's authoritative Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase win at Wetherby, writes John de Moraville.
The injury-plagued eight-year-old, on debut for the in-form Donald McCain stable, oozed class in giving weight and a comfortable beating to heavily-backed favourite Time For Rupert.
Weird Al, cashing in on the morning withdrawal of last year's Hennessy hero Diamond Harry (168), took his chasing record to an impressive fivewins from just seven starts, in the process boosting his rating by 13lb to 164.
That still leaves him plenty to find with Gold Cup title-holder and clear ante-post favourite Long Run (182) but, mathematically, Saturday's performance could have been rated higher.
Over the years, we may have been guilty of over-rating Charlie Hall winners and have taken a conservative view on Weird Al, who gave Time For Rupert (159) 3lb and a beating of just over three lengths. He might prove capable of leaving his new mark behind.
POURING IT ON
The Listed WilliamHill.com Handicap Hurdle was run on the final day that form can be taken into account for the Greatwood Hurdle, weights for which are out this week, writes Dave Dickinson.
The valuable trial did not disappoint, with the majority of the field being in with a chance jumping two out. Two of the co-favourites had quickened seven lengths clear of the rest by the line and with fifth home, Drill Sergeant, seemingly on a going day and used as a benchmark, Brampour and Via Galilei have gone up by 10lb and 8lb respectively.
Both the first and second were high class Flat horses in their time but the younger Brampour may have more scope for further improvement than the horse he narrowly defeated. Via Galilei has already made the frame in major handicaps at Sandown and Aintree and looks a two miler through and through. Brampour, however, was running in only his fifth hurdle and put up very much his best hurdling performance.
One thing the handicapper cannot take into account is potential stamina. Brampour's Flat win as a two-year-old came over 1m2f and he was placed in a 1m7f Listed race at three. He may well run off his new mark in the Greatwood, maybe under the promising amateur who gave him such a fine ride at the weekend, but there is every chance that he will eventually prove better suited by further than 2m.
SLUMBER PARTY
The majority of racehorse owners are rarely fortunate enough to have one live chance in a black-type race, but Prince Khalid Abdulla has fantastic strength in depth and owned the first three in the market in Saturday's Listed James Seymour Stakes over 1m2f at Newmarket and they provided him with a one-two-four, writes GregPearson.
The average performance figure achieved by the winner of this race since the year 2000 is 110, although that number is dragged down by 2004-winner Spanish Don, who ran only to 100 and never won another race. The highest level of performance recorded by a winner in recent years is Island House in 2002, who ran to 114.
I have Slumber running to a figure of 110 (up 7lb) in beating Dux Scholar by one and three quarter lengths, with the runner-up at 111 under his 4lb penalty. Dux Scholar is proving admirably consistent, running to within 2lb of his 112 rating on his last five starts. The veteran Newmarket-specialist Classic Punch was beaten five and half lengths in third and ran to a rating of 100, which is a 1lb improvement on his pre-race mark, though Jet Away came up some way short of what he'd done at York last time (rated 114, ran to only 100) back in fourth.
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