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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Overturn: achieved a career-high mark of 168 in Fighting Fifth
PICTURE: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)Sivola De Sivola takes advantage in Pertemps
We have some variety on offer this week with both Flat and jumps covered. The highlight of the week was of course the Hennessy meeting and a feature on the big race itself can be found in Phil Smith's Head of Handicapping blog. In this section you can find articles covering more action at the Hennessy meeting, as well as the FightingFifth Hurdle and even something from abroad!
For the fourth consecutive year, the favourite has triumphed in the Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier on the Friday of the Newbury Hennessy meeting, writes Martin Greenwood.
Normally I would be a little agitated at such a stat. Why are the majority of the punting public managing to find the winner in a supposedly competitive race?
The bare facts, however, hide a crucial point. Three of those winners had already been raised in the ratings by the handicapper in question [me] but they were all allowed to run off their previous inferior marks.
You may well ask why this situation is allowed to happen and for those of you who are not up to speed with how the system works, I will enlighten you.
Any horse who runs on a Sunday to a Saturday inclusive and has its rating altered has got until the following Friday to run under its old mark (or under a penalty in the case of a winner).
The recent winner of the Newbury race, Sivola de Sivola, is a good example. He ran his best race to date (at that time) when fifth to the highly promising Fingal Bay in the Grade 2 novice on the Sunday of the Cheltenham Open meeting (on the 13th November).
I raised him from 122 to 128after that run, but the horse's connections had until the 25th November to take advantage of his old mark, and he duly obliged at 7-2 by five lengths, earning himself a new rating of 132. Obviously if he had to carry an extra 6lb, then both his starting price and the result would have in theory been much more competitive.
The 2010 and 2008 versions of the same race had very similar patterns. Ballydub had 7lb in hand when winning the latter at 5-4 having finished second at the same Cheltenham meeting, while Barafundle came good last year after chasing home Grands Crus at Haydock, and again was due a 7lb raise in the ratings.
While I can gain some solace from the fact that I was right to raise each of the three winners, it is slightly irksome that a race as supposedly competitive as the one at Newbury is rarely run on a level playing field.
Connections of the winners, of course, won‘t care a jot. Connections of the beaten horses may well be left rueing the way the system works.
NEWCASTLE'S STAR TURN
Newcastle's stanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle became another notch on the bedpost of the extraordinary Overturn, who in the process became the first horse to complete the Northumberland Plate/Fighting Fifth double at the Gosforth Parktrack, writes Dave Dickinson.
Add to those wins a Galway Hurdle and a Chester Cup and Donald McCain's seven-year-old is approaching the legend stage in terms of true dual-purpose horses.
Has he improved this winter? Very probably, and he reversed January's Christmas Hurdle form with Binocular by around eight lengths, his rating going up to a career-high 168.
He showed real determination at Newcastle on ground that has in the past seemed slower than ideal, jumping well, and while he may not be best suited to Cheltenham (a course which hardly favours front runners) he has surely earned the right to have another crack at the Champion Hurdle. Connections will no doubt hope the ground is as quick as is safely possible come the big day.
There are often pieces in the press regarding the small fields for conditions races such as this. Two Northern-trained outsiders took their chance, both rated 113 going into the race against three rivals rated in the 160's.
They fared differently. Kosta Brava was well tailed off after pulling too hard but StormyWeather appeared to run really, well finishing only ten lengths behind Celestial Halo, who had won a handicap last time out off his mark of 160.
Their new marks? Stormy Weather stays on 113 and Kosta Brava drops three to 110. Both sets of connections can be very pleased with their afternoon's work, having pocketed four-figure sums in place money.
RIFLES STILL FIRING
One of the main jobs for some of the team at present is working on the various drafts of the top Flat horses for discussion at the World Rankings conference, which takes place in Hong Kong early next month, writes Stewart Copeland.
I put the finishing touches to the sprint draft last week, which includes all British-trained horses we believe worthy of a 110+ performance.
At least I thought I'd made the finishing touches, because a late contender for thelist popped up in the shape of Eton Rifles, a six-year-old gelding now in the care of Stuart Williams.
It's been a tremendous season for Eton Rifles; hewon a handicap at Goodwood in August and was an excellent second in the Ayr Gold Cup the following month. That was soon followed by a Listed success at the Curragh.
However, his second success in Listed company, the six-furlong Prix Contessina at Fontainebleau, is arguably a career-best effort. His two-length defeat of Fred Lalloupet, a consistent performer at Listed/Group level in France, equates to an improved rating of 111 (he was rated 106 prior to the race in France).
A tough and genuine individual, he seems well suited by plenty of give in the ground - both Listed successes were on soft - and he could well make his presence felt in Pattern company next year, particularly if the heavens open.
In a usual British summer that's almost a given!
This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
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