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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Camelot eclipses his rivals in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster
PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)Rankings reveal much to look forward to in 2012
IT MAY seem strange for a January blog to concentrate mainly on Flat racing, but this week sees the unveiling of the World Thoroughbred Rankings for the 2011 season and both Phil Smith and Matthew Tester take the opportunity to put some of the headline figures into context.
Elsewhere there's an above-average performance on the all-weather that is discussed, along with a mini-round-up from the jumps sphere.
FRANKEL MY DEAR...
The 2011 World Thoroughbred Rankings (WTR) were announced on Tuesday at a press conference at BHA headquarters in London, writes Phil Smith.
They showed the outstanding quality of the horses that were trained in Britain last summer. For the first time since 1994, six of the top ten horses in the world were trained in Britain.
This time it is Frankel 136, Canford Cliffs 127, Rewilding 127, Dream Ahead 126, Excelebration 126 and Nathaniel 126. Seventeen years ago it was Distant View 128, Maroof 128, Barathea 127, Erhaab 126, King's Theatre 126 and Lochsong 126.
When the current WTR is added to its forerunner, the International Classifications which began in 1977, Frankel becomes the highest rated horse since 1997 when Peintre Celebre received 137 for his scintillating victory in that year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. He is also the second-highest miler everbehind El Gran Senor (138) in 1984 and the joint eighth highest-rated horse at any distance since 1977 together with Sea The Stars.
Black Caviar (132) is the highest sprinter since Dayjur received 133 in 1990 and the joint second-highest female ever together with Miesque, Pebbles and All Along, with only Three Troikas (137) higher in 1979.
Imagine a match over 7f between BlackCaviar and Frankel - who would be the winner? I suspect home advantage could be crucial as in Britain the mare would receive a 3lb sex allowance whereas in Australia she would get 2kg.
HARD TO SPLIT THE JUVENILES
A year ago we had joint two-year-old champions at 126 in Frankel and Dream Ahead, writes Matthew Tester.
Both of them were well above the usual level needed to be a champion. And what an amazing year each of them had as three-year-olds much to our joy. The successes of Dream Ahead gave me great personal pleasure and Frankel all year was awesome in the best meaning of that word.
This time we have joint champions at 119 with Dabirsim and Camelot. This is the lowest level for champion two-year-old in the modern era - from 1985 onwards during which the composition of the Classifications committee has remained unchanged. From that year onwards the ratings have been agreed by representatives of Great Britain, Ireland, France, Italy and Germany.
Unlike a year before, there were no real standout performances by the juveniles. For much of the year I thought that Harbour Watchwould be the champion. After three runs he had already reached a rating of 117 but his leg injury stopped him from turning up for the big races. Camelot made a huge impression winning the Racing Post Trophy but he beat a small field of fairly unexposed horses. Dabirsim won two Group 1s in France but was never up against an exceptional opponent.
Does this mean we are in for a dull 2012 with the three-year-olds? Not at all. The lowest previous champion in my fifteen years with the two-year-olds was Bago and he went on to win three Group 1s the next year including the Arc. Dr Devious was the lowest rated Dewhurst winner of the previous twenty years and he went on to win the Derby.
Camelot, especially, looks a wonderful prospect for 2012, and if he does not step up to the mark then we are in for an exciting time unearthing dark horses who will. Bring it on.
THE HUNDRED CLUB
Three-figure ratings have been a rarity on the all-weather sprint scene this winter, so Oasis Dancer's success in the feature 6f handicap at Lingfield on Saturday made a pleasant change, writes Stewart Copeland.
Trained by Ralph Beckett, the five-year-old was made favourite on the strength of his success over the same trip in a conditions race at Wolverhampton last month, earning a rating of 98 that day. He clearly showed that revised mark was far from beyond him, running out a decisive two-length winner from Fratellino, with recent course and distance winner Capone, a narrow third.
Rated as high as 106 duringthe summer of 2010, his win at Lingfield represented a return to that level of form and Oasis Dancer is well worth another chance in Listed company with the 6f Listed Cleves Stakes at Lingfield in late February an obvious opportunity in that grade.
JUMPS ROUND-UP
The best quality middle distance hurdle race of the last week was the 2m4f mares Listed hurdle at Sandown on Saturday, writes Chris Nash.
The race was run at an honest enough pace to believe that the form might have some substance and the finish was fought out by the two best fancied runners.
Kells Belle (pre-race rating of 125) beat Kaffie (pre-race rating of 132) by a length and three quarters and, having met here at level weights, the obvious starting point would be to rate the winner 134 meaning that the runner-up would get 2lb for a near-two-length beating should they meet in a handicap next time out. I was reluctant to do this on two counts.
Firstly Kells Belle has beenconsistent in handicaps this season off marks in the mid-120s so it might be a bit fanciful to suddenly assume that she has improved by as much as 9lb. Secondly the runner-up was given a very positive ride and, having been sent to the front at halfway, she was still travelling better than the winner on the run to two out before being reeled in late. It is fair to assume that in winning this race Kells Belle has produced a career best so some rise is inevitable and I have decided to rate her 132 - the same as the runner-up.
A mention too for Star Of Angels, who won a competitive 0-135 handicap hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday off a mark of 128. This horse had run fourth in the Coral Cup at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival but then had two years away from the track. He showed little on his return to action at Sandown last month but his effort on Saturday confirmed that much if not all of his former ability remained.
Two lightly raced novices with solid form (both on their handicap debuts) filled third and fourth positions so this form has some substance to it. The winner will go up 8lb to a mark of 136. Given that his fourth at the festival came from a mark of 137 then he has definite potential from his revised rating.
Star Of Angels is trained by David Pipe so what chance we see him at the festival in March perhaps in the Martin Pipe Handicap hurdle over 2m4f for horses rated 0-145?
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