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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Pateese: Greatwood hope appears to be short of Champion Hurdle class
PICTURE: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)King edges out Pateese as standout performer
THE jumps handicappers take responsibility for this week's blog and the hurdles team of Dave Dickinson and Martin Greenwood each flag up progressive sorts we could hear a lot more of in the coming months. Also, Mark Olley touches on what proved an excellent Wincanton meeting for Paul Nicholls and gives his verdict on the trainer's one-two in the feature.
GREATWOOD EXPECTATIONS
Sandown's Bet @Bluesq.com Handicap Hurdle looked an open enough race on paper but it was turned into a cakewalk by the Philip Hobbs-trained Pateese, writes Dave Dickinson.
Yes, holes can bepicked in the form, four of the next six home were making their seasonal reappearance and the tape went back at the start with the field not exactly in the best of lines, which meant one or two rivals were not able to adopt the handy position that the winner was.
The more positive view is that second and third are both lightly raced four-year-olds with their best surely still ahead of them. Add to that the fact that last year's second in this race, Sircozy, ran off the same mark as a year ago but could only finished fifth this time and the form begins to take on a solid enough look for the time of year.
Pateese was 10-12 lengths clear at the last and was eased significantly on the run to the line. I have put the runner-up, Pantxoa, up 1lb to 130 and Pateese to 143, a rise of 15lb using Paintball as the benchmark but allowing him a pound for the mistake he made.
Next weekend's Greatwood Hurdle becomes the obvious target, particularly if Overturn bypasses the race enabling Pateese to run from in the handicap proper, so the shortening of his ante-post price seems justified.
One word of caution however, the Greatwood has for some years been a pivotal race in the 2m hurdling season and has a habit of being won by horses that become Champion Hurdle contenders. Even off 143, Pateese is surely still some way short of that.
This time of year I field a fair few phone calls from owners and trainers whose horses are technically qualified for a mark but come Tuesday morning don't get one published. There are a number of reasons why this might happen. For instance, horses that have been beaten out of sight or heavily eased in their races we might wish to see run in another novice hurdle. That is not the sole reason though.
To illustrate the point, consider my reading of Exeter's 2.20 race on Tuesday, won by 4-9 favourite Jump City. This horse was just over two lengths and 7lb behind the 144-rated Smad Place on his hurdles debut last season and so he now gets a mark of 135. Jump City didn't appear to win the Exeter race with much in hand and only two of the next ten home had run over hurdles prior to this. Unfortunately for me, both are now qualified for marks.
I have used the winner as my Exeter benchmark for now and that may be correct in the long term but it is flimsy evidence on which to base an opening mark. I have therefore left both horse's rating non-published for now.
If connections ring up I will explain what I have done and they can use a rating based through Jump City if they wish to. This course of action may generate a couple of phone calls. Publishing the ratings would very probably generate a couple of ‘are you raving bonkers?' type phone calls instead, however, so this route is preferable.
KINGMAKER
Easily the most impressive winner in my division this week was King Of The Night, who turned the Pertemps qualifier at Kempton last Monday into a procession, writes Martin Greenwood.
Racingoff a mark of 143 courtesy of a cosy win off 8lb lower at Newton Abbot on his reappearance earlier in October, King Of The Night travelled supremely well off the pace and sluiced through the field at will to lead at the last and effortlessly pull five lengths clear of the rest.
It is incredibly difficult to be sure how much is left in the tank in instances like this, but, for now, I have added an extra stone to his rating which is now 157.
King Of The Night will almost certainly be able to hold his own out of handicap company and it will be interesting to see if connections choose to step up to Listed/Pattern level next time. While he isn't in stable mate Big Buck's calibre just yet, he is certainly a very bright prospect in his own right.
THE MINACK STEALS THE SHOW
The Badger Ales Handicap Chase at Wincanton on Saturday rounded off an excellent afternoon for Paul Nicholls as his one-two, courtesy of The Minack and Meanus Dandy, made for his fifth course winner of the afternoon, writes Mark Olley.
Meanus Dandy was bidding to repeat his 2010 success in the race and as he kicked eight lengths clear going over three out he looked to have the race in the bag. However, the very positive tactics told in the end as The Minack gradually wore him down.
The Paul Nicholls duo pulled nine lengths clear of the consistent Benbane Head, in third, and I have rated the race around him. Meanus Dandy posted a figure of 138 when winning last year and I have him 2lb better this time with a career high rating of 140. He unseated his rider in the Becher Chase at Aintree subsequently and rather lost his way, but he clearly relishes a flat 3m+ and decent ground.
The Minack moves to a new figure of 150, up 9lb, and as this was only his fifth chase start there is surely further improvement now he has proven his stamina at 3m+.
I visited the Minack Theatre, from where the gelding gets hisname, while in Cornwall this summer and had a truly memorable time at this spectacular landmark. I highly recommend a visit to anyone who is in the area and will be keeping a close eye on the horse of the same name from now on too.
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