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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
It's a headscratcher
This week events at Newmarket take centre stage, writes blog editor Martin Greenwood.
2-y-o assessor Matt Tester on his big races . . .
My championship races kicked off this week and they gave me pleasure and a headache in equal measure. The two Group 1s were the Fillies Mile, won by Lyric Of Light, and the Cheveley Park, won by Lightening Pearl. I had each of those winners pencilled in at 111 before their race and have each of them running right up to their best in winning. But there were also disappointments.
Fallen For You had been only a neck behind Lyric Of Light last time at Doncaster but she raced here rather keenly and faded into fifth. I had hoped for a stirring rematch. Instead it was Mick Channon's Royal Ascot winner Samitar who pushed the winner all the way to the line; and she had been adrift of both of them in that Doncaster race.
Biggest headache is going to be Best Terms who did not show any of the verve and speed that she had given us in York's Lowther Stakes. That day she gave weight and a beating to a strong field which included the 2nd and 3rd in the Cheveley Park - the vastly improved Sunday Times and the Princess Margaret winner Angels Will Fall.
Best Terms earned her 115 rating that day. Eight of the horses she beat have run again and seven of them have actually boosted the form. In particular she gave an eight pounds beating to Fire Lily who was then given only a five pounds beating by Maybe in Ireland. And Maybe is many people's idea of the champion filly. I think that I must stick with a 115 for Best Terms and just accept that she did not show anything like the same form at Newmarket. It will be interesting to see if my international colleagues see it the same way when we are putting together the International Classifications at the end of the year. Maybe is 116 in Ireland in the belief that Fire Lily had improved between the two races.
The other big 2yo winner was Daddy Long Legs who led an Aidan O'Brien 1-2-3 in the Royal Lodge. We think that the winner is worth around the 112 mark for now, a good figure but understandably nothing like last year's winner Frankel at 126.
PRINCE AMONG MEN
Graeme Smith on an outsider's success . . .
"A wolf in sheep's clothing" was how commentator Richard Hoiles described the progressive three-year-old Pipedreamer's decisive success in the Cambridgeshire in 2007, whilst Formal Decree and Tazeez also won on their way to pattern company either side of him, but the unexposed horses barely got a look in this time around as the more established handicappers fought the finish out.
It was something of a rough race as the entire field crowded against the stand rail, with the market leaders Man of Action and Questioning amongst the worst sufferers, and the first nine were covered by less than four lengths at the line.
It proved a very straightforward race to assess. Both the fourth-placed Nanton and sixth-placed Circumvent were 1lb well in with the weights having been published some weeks ago, and a line through the latter suggested a 7lb rise for the winner Prince of Johanne. Going back through his form that 7lb rise for Prince of Johanne proved a perfect fit the way his fifth at Glorious Goodwood two starts back has worked out, in line with how the first three home Arlequin, Modun and Our Joe Mac have each progressed since then. The odd one out from that contest is the fourth-placed Jutland incidentally, who looks potentially very treated now but simply hasn't gone on, underlining the fact once more as he finished well down the Cambridgeshire field.
There was a blanket finish for the places, a length and three quarters behind Prince of Johanne, and Stevie Thunder, Proponent and Nanton have all been reassessed 3lb higher than the marks they ran off, with Markazzi up 1lb a further length behind them.
. . . YOUR TIME IS UP
Stephen Hindle finishes off our triumvirate of Newmarket reports . . .
Hidden amongst the plethora of high-quality Newmarket action was a pretty good staying performance, with Times Up making quite an impression on his maiden voyage over two miles in the Listed Jockey Club Rose Bowl. His margin of victory at the line wasn't all that impressive, the distance between himself and runner-up Chiberta King only one and a half lengths, but the smoothness with which he travelled through the race and with which he put that distance between himself and the second certainly was.
The form looks solid. Chiberta King has appeared to return to his best of 108, whilst third-placed Nehaam went in 105 and was receiving 3 lbs from the first two. The time was also plenty respectable and Times Up looks thoroughly deserving of his new mark of 111. He'll merit plenty of respect in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot back up in class if that is indeed where we see him next.
Over in Germany, Fox Hunt booked his place in the Melbourne Cup with a gritty success in the Deutsches St Leger, which was a thrilling race to watch on YouTube, if only for the commentary, regardless of whether or not you speak German!
Fox Hunt has looked a rock-solid 110 in recent starts, not least when sixth off that mark in the Ebor, and it would appear he's run to his mark again in battling to a three-quarter length success over Fair Boss.
This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
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