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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Frankel (left) showed himself to be the best miler since El Gran Senor
PICTURE: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)Freaky Frankel stamps himself as one of the best
THIS WEEK we quite rightly concentrate on events in Sussex last week, writes blog editor Martin Greenwood. We also have space for an article from the Galway Festival...
Deputy Head of Handicapping and mile specialist Dominic Gardiner-Hill on a truly outstanding racehorse…
There’s an internet poll running in Australia asking readers to vote on who would win a mile race between their ace filly Black Caviar, their ex-Champion So You Think and our very own Frankel…….perhaps unsurprisingly Frankel currently trails in a distant third with 134 votes,with Black Caviar (188 votes) leading So You Think (171)!
The truth is however, that following his stunning victory in last Wednesday’s Qipco Sussex Stakes at Goodwood Frankel can justifiably be called the best racehorse on the planet at the present time.
Whilst I bemoaned the lack of opposition to the ‘big two’ in last week’s blog, thankfully Rio de la Plata probably did enough to give us a fairly reliable guide to the level of the race. He has an official mark of 120, but that was gained over ten furlongs and I don’t believe he has ever been better than 118 over a mile – a figure I believe he attained in both the Moulin and the Vittorio di Capua last year. Using him as a guide, I have Canford Cliffs running to 123 and Frankel performing to 133+. In only beating “Rio” by 2 ½ lengths at Goodwood rather than the 5 lengths he beat him in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, the suspicion appears confirmed that Canford Cliffs did not run up to best of 127, but that should not take away from the winner’s breathtaking performance.
Given the style and victory of his success I have published Frankel on a new mark of 135 this week – which mirrors my view that he is the best miler I have seen since I took over that group of horses in 1996. The previous best I had seen were Mark Of Esteem following his success in the 1996 QEII and Hawk Wing after his Lockinge rout of 2003 – both of whom were rated 133. In fact going further back in time, 135 places Frankel above such outstanding milers as Zilzal (134), Warning (133), Miesque (132), Pebbles (132) and Shadeed (131). In recent times only El Gran Senor (138 in the 1984 International Classification) is rated higher at the moment.
Many will say I have erred on the side of caution with Frankel’s new mark and it was not difficult to get carried away on the tidal wave of emotion at Goodwood last week, which was the main reason why I would not commit myself to a rating when asked immediately after the race. I wanted to review the whole situation in the cold light of day and be as objective as possible in my assessment. Time may prove that I didn’t do the horse justice but at the present time he sits 1lb below the 136 given to Sea The Stars at the end of 2009 and on the same mark as last year’s champion Harbinger – I am comfortable with that at the present time.
The suggestion is that Frankel will have one more outing this year, most probably in the QEII at Ascot.Canford Cliffs looks certain to reoppose and let’s hope he bounces back to his best and with the ground likely to be easier than it was at Goodwood, maybe the likes of Dick Turpin and Cityscape will turn up to add further spice. Another demolition job there would surely cement Frankel’s position as the world’s leading horse of 2011 and as one of the true greats of the sport.
NOBODY’S TAKING THE MICK
Stew Copeland on a fantastic day for one of racing’s true characters…
It’s few and far between to suggest a horse who has won a handicap, albeit one as competitive as the 6f Blue Square Stewards’ Cup, is up to winning a Group 1, but Hoof It’s tremendous weight-carrying performance under 10st at Goodwood is worthy of such a view.
As far as top performance in handicaps go, I recollect Russian Revival winning the 7f Tote International Handicap at Ascot off 114 back in 1999, in my first year in this job, though he had only a mere 9st7lbs to carry on that occasion. With regards the Stewards’ Cup the best comparison in recent years is Patavellian’s success back in 2003, and he sets the template for Hoof It as he went on to win the Group 1 Prix De L’Abbaye at Longchamp on his next start. He won his renewal off a mark of 95, which puts into stark perspective how well Hoof It did to defy a rating of 111 on Saturday.
What was so impressive about Hoof It’s success was again how strongly he travelled, and once he hit the front well over a furlong out the result was never in doubt. In running out such an emphatic winner by two and a half lengths from the admirable veteran, Tax Free, I’ve taken the view that Hoof It improved his rating to 119. With Mac’s Power and Nasri filling the minor berths – both have plenty of big handicap performances this year – the form, not surprisingly for a race of this type, has a very solid look to it.
In terms of the 6f horses this performance ranks only behind Dream Ahead’s success in the July Cup, and has further spiced up a division which is throwing up some exciting performances in Britain this year.
Hoof It’s first attempt at Group 1 company could well come in the Nunthorpe over five furlongs at York, though he would have to be supplemented for that contest. To sum up his possible chance there, his rating of 119 is higher than any winning performance in that contest since 2004 – Oasis Dream ran to 121 in 2003 – and looking at the entries for the race he would be the top rated in the field if he turned up.
Given his high cruising speed there’s every reason to think Hoof It will be just as effective back at the minimum, and it’s hard to imagine there’ll be a more shouted home winner on the Knavesmire this year, or anywhere else for that matter, if he notches the prize for his popular North Yorkshire trainer, the ageless Mick Easterby. He deserves great credit for his handling of Hoof It, and when you consider he rates him the best sprinter he’s trained, given some of the top speedsters he’s had at his Sheriff Hutton yard, that’s rare praise indeed.
THAT’S YOUR OPINION
Stephen Hindle onthe best stayers…
The two best races for stayers at Glorious Goodwood took place within half an hour of one another in the form of the Artemis Goodwood Cup and the I-Shares Lillie Langtry Stakes.
In the Goodwood Cup, Opinion Poll went one better than in the Ascot Gold Cup by clinging on by a head from another Godolphin runner, Lost In The Moment, who was possibly unlucky having met traffic problems.
However, it’s virtually impossible to have Opinion Poll running to the same level (116) as in the Gold Cup with Blue Bajan only a neck behind Lost In The Moment, despite having to carry a Group 2 penalty. Fox Hunt was just a nose further back in fourth and looks a solid guide having entered on a rating of 110, which he earned after finishing second in a handicap at York.
Even that suggests Blue Bajan has run to a career best at the age of nine, though he could also be 113 on his second in last year’s Yorkshire Cup. A 113 for Blue Bajan equates to 111 for Opinion Poll, but he will stay on 116 as there is noreason to think the Gold Cup is too high just yet.
I rated Lost In The Moment 111 to get him ahead of Blue Bajan at the weights and also Fox Hunt. The Ebor could well be the target for Lost In The Moment, as he would be able to race off his old mark of 105, the weights having already come out.
Half an hour later, the fillies and mares took their turn over a staying trip, though rather than the two miles of the Goodwood Cup, the Lillie Langtry is run over a mile and three quarters.
Despite having a lower status (the Lillie Langtry is a Group 3 whereas the Goodwood Cup is a Group 2), I had Meeznah running to a higher performance figure than Opinion Poll,returning to her best of 113, which she achieved when second to Snow Fairy in last year’s Oaks, a race she was subsequently disqualified from after testing positive for a banned substance.
She was two and a half lengthstoo good for the French raider Shankardeh, who went one place better than in Group 2 company at Saint-Cloud on her previous start.
The level can’t be far wrong, as I have Motrice running 1lb above her pre-race rating of 106 in third, and Polly’s Mark 1lb below hers in fourth, which was also 106.
Wild Coco was a little disappointing in fifth. She had beaten the winner on worse terms when cosily winning a Listed race at Newmarket 12 days earlier, but finished nearly six lengths adrift of Meeznah this time. She is probably worth another chance, however, and will possibly be better suited by a more galloping track.
As for Meeznah, she could go to Doncaster for the Park Hill, a race in which she was third last year.
SPEED MERCHANT
Chris Nash on an improving sprinter…
The 5f highlight of the festival was the Group 2 King George Stakes. It was won in impressive fashion by Masamah who broke well, grabbed the stands rail and made all. He pulled clear when asked and was even able to ease down a touch close home. The time of the race confirmed the good visual impression that he made.
On his previous outing he had won a Listed contest at York running to a career best figure of 107 and in his wake that day were Amore Propre (second beaten a neck - running to 106), Golden Destiny (fourth beaten 2½ lengths - running to 94), Group Therapy (fifth - running to 99) and Rain Delayed (seventh – running to 97). All of these reopposed at Goodwood and the result was similar. Amore Propre again finished second but was beaten 1¾ lengths this time, Group Therapy got closer in third but the other two were beaten significantly further.
The form makes it fairly straightforward to concludethat Masamah is a rapidly improving sprinter and he recorded a new career best on Thursday. Using Amore Propre (pre-race rating of 106) as a guide I have him running to 111+ and his reassessed rating will be 112.
Connections have the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York in August on their agenda and with the emphasis there firmly on early speed and his proven ability to go at the track he should be a viable contender.
TACTICAL AFFAIR
Dave Dickinson reads the big hurdle race of the week…
The fact that tactics play a very important part in deciding the result of a race were again shown to be the case in Galway’s Guinness Galway Hurdle.
Plenty has been written about the favourite for the race The Real Article (who incidentally was 16lbs clear of David Pipe’s Street Entertainer and more of the rest on the hurdle figures I keep). My only comment on the affair is that I didn’t think it served the trainer’s case well that he should defend the Tipperary run of the horse and criticise the penalty structure for races like the Galway Hurdle in the same interview. In Britain penalties are in the race conditions, in Ireland any penalty amounts are decided by the handicapper, Qulinton had a 12lbs penalty for the Plate but Princeton Plains only gota four pound one for the Hurdle.
To the race itself, the runners circled like vultures at the start. The pace was going to be frantic wasn’t it? Well no. Foster’s Cross and Moon Dice got away quickly (in a race off six seconds before time if you believe the ATR clock) and flew the first but by the bend into the straight towards the second flight they had slowed things right down. The tactic worked a treat. They were first and second throughout as those behind travelled well but found precious little room and with the front duo dictating when the race quickened, none of those behind ever got truly competitive. Hats off to Tom Doyle and Davy Russell for acouple of masterful rides but don’t trust the form, it will surely prove misleading.
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