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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Frankel hits heights on brilliant Champions Day
The richest day in British racing history brought together the finest horses in Europe and a large and enthusiastic crowd, and it proved very much a day for the stars to shine, writes blog editor Graeme Smith. There were returning heroes and Classic waltzes, but above all the day belonged to Frankel, billed as the centrepiece and very much rising to the challenge. Our team of handicappers bring you their thoughts on it all.
FRANKEL-SENSE
Having spent most of Saturday afternoon, Sunday and Monday taking texts, emails and phone calls asking me "what's HE going to then?" I've felt a bit of a "party pooper" replying that the mighty Frankel will be staying on his pre-race rating of 135 despite his demolition of the QE II field, writes Dominic Gardener-Hill.
I have become a huge admirer of the horse, he's certainly the best miler I've seen, and would love to get him up to the sort of figures people feel would do him justice but cold, hard handicapping facts make that less than easy.
The key to the QEII for me lies in the performance of fourth-placed Dubawi Gold. Beaten six lengths by Frankel in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket he has never been better than 117 in my eyes in his eight starts prior to Saturday's race and I see no obvious reason why he should have bettered that figure in going down by seven and three quarter lengths at Ascot.
Building up from Richard Hannon's colt suggests that third-placed Immortal Verse has run to 115 (6lb below her Jacques le Marois performance but with an interrupted preparation and on ground that was probably faster than ideal) and runner-up Excelebration has performed to 125. He is currently rated 126 on the back of his six-length romp in the Hungerford at Newbury (7f) but this may prove the more reliable form although he retains his 126 for the time being.
Interestingly a four-length defeat by Frankel in the QEII mirrors exactly result of the Greenham atNewbury when Marco Botti's colt once again finished second, whilst he narrowed the gap to two and a quarter lengths when third to him in the St James's Palace when Frankel was not at his best.
This evidence, plus the increased margin of only one and three quarter lengths over Dubawi Gold suggests that maybe, just maybe, Frankel has not "progressed away" from his rivals as much as many think. In running to 133+ in winning Saturday's race, I believe Frankel did little or no more than when beating Canford Cliffs in the Sussex.
The suggestion that Dubawi Gold should set the level of Saturday's race is given further credence by the performances of Poet's Voice (6th -went into the race 114, ran to 115) and Side Glance (7th - went in 115, ran to 115), whilst pacemaker Bullet Train has mathematically run to 109 in finishing last of the eight runners despite going into the race rated only 106!
There can be little doubt however, that Frankel is currently the best racehorse on the planet. His rating of 135 still sees him 5lb clear of nearest challenger Black Caviar who will have little opportunity to better her figure before the end of the year, which should ensure Frankel takes his place at the top of the heap.
For those who believe I am undercooking Frankel's rating let me assure you there is still hope that he might end the year on a higher mark. When the World Rankings Committee meets in Hong Kong in December to discuss the year's performances, it might well be decided that 135 is indeed on the mean side and that he is deserving of a higher figure - I certainly would not object if that was the view of the Committee!
In the meantime let's forget talk of figures and bask in the glory of the performances of one of the finest thoroughbreds to have graced our sport in recent years....AND he stays in training as a four year old!!
C'EST MAGNIFIQUE!!!
The inaugural Qipco British Champions day delivered in no uncertain terms - sadly much of the publicity from Cirrus Des Aigles' thrilling victory over So You Think in the Group 1 Champion Stakes centred around the whip furore, and detracted from what was simply a wonderful performance by the French-trained gelding, writes Greg Pearson.
It will not rate as the best individual performance recorded in recent years - that honour lies with New Approach after his six-length annihilation of Twice Over in 2008 saw him record a rating of 130. Excluding New Approach, the highest level of performance achieved by a winner this century was Kalanisi who earned a rating of 126 for beating Montjeu in 2000.
The quality of field assembled for the 2011 edition was there for all to see, seven individual Group 1 winners who had amassed a total of twenty-four wins at the highest level. I assessed the race around So You Think recording a performance figure of 126 in finishing second beaten three-quarters of a length, which dictates the winner Cirrus des Aigles recorded a career best performance of 128.
No one would begrudge the tough French gelding his maiden Group 1 victory at the eighth attempt, given his agonisingly narrow defeats at the hands of Sarafina (Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud) and Goldikova (Prix Ispahan) during his 2011 campaign.
A brilliant tactical ride from Christophe Soumillon saw himbreak positively from barrier one and he was a man on mission. He seemingly had one objective in the early stages - that was get off the fence and be in a position to choose his path, rather than be dictated to and rely on luck in running.
It is hard to say whether finding the back of So You Think on settling was part of the plan, or a bi-product of being assertive and making your own luck. But as they say the rest is history, with the cards falling kindly in running for Soumillon thereafter, and once he'd eased Twice Over out of the way turning into the home straight...glory beckoned.
Snow Fairy finished third beaten one and a quarter lengths, but in so doing still managed to record a career best performance of 122 and accordingly this will be her revised handicap mark. I personally don't subscribe to the theory she was unlucky, in fact whilst I would concede the clear run didn't come when she needed it most early in the straight I'd be hard pressed to say she should have finished second let alone won the race!
Other notable performances amongst the beaten brigade were Green Destiny in sixth, who achieved a personal best rating of 119, whilst Wigmore Hall in ninth was desperately out of luck in the straight and managed to run into a traffic jam just when commencing to make good ground - this incident effectively ended his chances and the run can be marked up significantly.
Of So You Think's last nine race starts he has recorded seven consecutive performance figures of 126 over a distance over 1m2f, admirably consistent if not fulfilling the ‘superstar reputation' he earned in Australia. The other two starts you may ask? Yes, they were both in excess of 1m2f - he recorded a performance of 122 in finishing fourth in the 2011 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp over 1m4f and also recorded a performance of 122 when third in the 2010 Melbourne Cup over 2m.
I would be just as happy to see connections drop him back to 1m rather than step him up to 1m4f again, but they don't need me dictating the program for their horses....there's always ‘rent-a-quote' John McCririck for that!
GROUP 1 WINNERS SHOW THEIR CLASS
There's no doubt the concept of British Champions Day worked brilliantly and the increased strength and depth of both the Champions Fillies' and Mares' Stakes (formerly the Pride Stakes) and the Champions Long Distance Cup (previously the Jockey Club Cup) provided an excellent backdrop to a couple of stellar Group 1s, writes Graeme Smith.
The former race, still a Group 2 contest, saw a career-best performance from the dual Oaks winner Dancing Rain. It's fair to say that neither of the progressive pair of Ferdoos and Vita Nova showed anything like their form but Dancing Rain produced a very smart performance nevertheless as she made all in a fast time, extending her advantage over Bible Belt to two lengths by the line.
A new rating of 117 represents a 1lb rise for Dancing Rain, though she still figures below the Yorkshire Oaks-winner Blue Bunting (118), who beat Crystal Capella, Banimpire and Brushing by further on the Knavesmire than Dancing Rain did here.
The afternoon got off to a flyer when the Gold Cup winner, Fame And Glory, got back to winning ways in the Group 3 stayers' event. Whilst the five-year-old earned the plaudits on Racing UK for some fast mid-racesections, a time comparison with Cirrus des Aigles' course record later on the card explains how the pace he set got nowhere near to stretching the field properly.
Many will suggest that a defeat of his main rival, Opinion Poll, represents a return to Fame And Glory's best, but for me the proximity of several others in the finish rather holds the form down.
I've rated Fame And Glory'sperformance at 111 (his published rating in Ireland is 120) and Opinion Poll's effort at 109 (rated 116), using the third-placed Colour Vision as a guide to the race, with that one running to the 109 I'd raised him to following his gallant third in the previous week's Cesarewitch. I've raised Nehaam from 105 to 109 for finishing fourth, a level that keeps him rated behind the below-par Times Up (111), who'd beaten him convincingly at Newmarket last time.
DEACON LEAVES RIVALS WITH THE BLUES
The inaugural running of the Group 2 Qipco British Champions Sprint - formerly the Diadem - may have been missing the three main protagonists from Haydock, namely Dream Ahead, Hoof It and Bated Breath, but it still looked a strong renewal with a fascinating clash between the market leaders Deacon Blues and Moonlight Cloud on the cards, writes Stewart Copeland.
As it turned out it was very much the former's day, and he cemented his position near the top of the sprinting tree with an impressive success. Always travelling smoothly just off the pace set by Hooray, he quickened in decisive fashion over a furlong out and was never in danger thereafter, holding off the French challenger Wizz Kid by a length and a half, withLibranno a further neck behind in third. Thelatter two ran right up their best in my view, rated 110 and 112, respectively.
Rated 120 going into the race, based primarily on his wide-margin success in the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint at the Curragh in August, I have Deacon Blues running to 117+ in winning on Saturday. However, given the authoritative manner of victory, I'm happy to leave his rating unchanged.
Unfortunately for Moonlight Cloud it was a case of what might have been, still going well when getting stuck behind the weakening Hooray, and simply finding herself with too much to do by the time she got in the clear. She was rated 118 after her win the Group 1 Maurice de Gheest at Deauville, and it was a shame she didn't get the chance to show what she could do.
As for the sprinting division as a whole, this year it has produced some cracking races in the big sprints, and it's been a keenly fought contest for top honours. At present, that's headed by Dream Ahead for his successes in the Darley July Cup and Betfred Sprint, though with the likes of Deacon Blues and Hoof It staying in training, next year promises plenty as well.
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