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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Dream Ahead (right) surges past Bated Breath to land the July Cup
PICTURE: Martin LynchDream Ahead looks best British sprinter in years
This week we concentrate on the biggest story of the week, with not one but two articles on Dream Ahead, before we up in trip to assess the milers, writes blog editor Martin Greenwood.
Stewart Copeland on a very special day . . .
For a horse unbeaten at the trip, including two Group 1 wins, Dream Ahead still seemed to have his doubters over the merit of those successes leading up to this year’s 6f Group 1 Darley July Cup, but he silenced them in fine style on Saturday.
Combine that with Hayley Turner’s first, and well-deserved, success at Group 1level, and it was certainly a day to remember for those fortunate enough like myself to be at Newmarket’s July course.
His impressive win proved beyond doubt that Dream Ahead could well prove to the best British sprinter we’ve seen for a good few years, and I’m already looking forward to seeing him run in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville and the Haydock Sprint Cup, all being well.
Like the Golden Jubilee, this year’s renewal of the July Cup didn’t quite boast the strong international challenge we’ve become accustomed to, but it still represented the pick of this year’s European 6f sprint form, with the notable exception of the Golden Jubilee winner, Society Rock.
Looking at the race beforehand the obvious pace looked likely to come from Libranno, drawn one, and it was no surprise when the field tacked over to the stands' side early on.
Always well placed just behind the pace, Dream Ahead travelled noticeably strongly throughout, and from 2f out it looked a case of when, not if, he would make his decisive move to win. Briefly short of room behind the hanging Bated Breath a furlong out, he was soon steered around him and powered to the front, winning readily by a half a length from the aforementioned rival.
Looking at the race as a whole it’s fair to say that those drawn high were clearly at a disadvantage, but there’s enough solid form amongst those drawn low to say that this renewal of the July Cup was well up to scratch. I eventually took the view that Dream Ahead ran to a mark of 120 on the bare form, but given the impressive nature of his success I’ve no hesitation in leaving him at his current rating of 126.
Of the rest, the progressive Bated Breath, back on his favoured sound surface, improved his rating from 113 to 118, whereas in third, a further length and a half back, Hitchens returned a career-best effort of 114. In fourth was the pace-setting Libranno who I have running to 111, reflecting the fact he would probably have finished a touch closer but for being short of room when Bated Breath hung towards the rail. He remains unchanged on 112.
One further horse who definitely merits a mention though is Delegator. Drawn worst of all in stall 17, he ran a cracking race to finish on the heels of the placed horses given his position away from the pace, and a far from trouble-free passage as well. Currently rated 112 after his win in the Duke of York, I have him running to 111 here, and it’ll be surprising if he doesn’t improve on those figures in the months ahead. It’s worth remembering he was rated as high as 121 as a three-year-old and he, more than most, may give Dream Ahead most to think about on the European sprint scene.
Can I have a second opinion?
Matthew Tester, 2-y-o Handicapper, also shares his thoughts . . .
I was thrilled to see Dream Ahead win the Darley July Cup insuch exciting style. He is clearly still the top-class sprinter that we saw last year. His record over six furlongs now reads: four starts, four wins, three of them in Group 1s. David Simcock had his star in great shape and I am looking forward toseeing what else they will achieve this year.
You may recall that we came in for some flack with the 2yo assessments when we rated Dream Ahead’s nine-length win in the Middle Park Stakes the equal of Frankel’s ten-length win in the Royal Lodge. It is great news that both of them have gone on to Group One success this year. Dream Ahead’s Middle Park form got a big boost when the runner up, Strong Suit, landed Royal Ascot’s Jersey Stakes. Frankel’s form also looks red hot with the Royal Lodge third coming on to win the Irish Derby this year.
The fact is that they were both brilliant 2yos and they are both brilliant 3yos and that is a joy for all of us.
I was grateful, though, for the many kind words and encouragement that have come my way since Dream Ahead flashed home on Saturday. The handicapper is always there to be shot at and any support we get is very much appreciated. Thank you.
Grand Prix . . .
Deputy Head of handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill assesses the best milers…
Last week saw some top quality action over a mile and it kicked off with the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly on Sunday. In truth it proved a somewhat unsatisfactory affair with no early pace, to the extent that the final two furlongs of the race were run in under 22 seconds and provided a result which could be interpreted in a number of different ways.
Given the sedate pace, I have taken the view that Richard Hannon’s pacemaking Strong Suit has reproduced his Jersey Stakes form of 116 in finishing a head and a nose 3rd to Mutual Trust (117), with fast finishing runner-up Zoffany also at 116, 4lb below his St James’s Palace form.
This interpretation means that fifth-placed Venomous has improved 2lb on his previous level in posting a figure of 113 and is one of the main reasons why I have not gone higher at this stage. I don’t believe either Zoffany or Glorious Sight (fourth) have run their race given the way things panned out but, as always, only time will tell if that is the case.
The first meaningful clash of the generations amongst the miling fillies took place in the Falmouth Stakes atNewmarket on Friday and honours went firmly to the older generation who filled the first three places, although in fairness it was hardly the 3yos ‘1st eleven” that turned up for the race.
In a muddling affair pacewise, it paid to race prominently and winner Timepiece (114), third First City (110) and fourth Joviality (109) were always thereabouts and appear to all have posted lifetime bests in the race. French filly Sahpresa (111) did best of the foreign challengers in finishing runner-up, a good effort given that she was held up in rear and had to make up a lot of ground quickly to deliver her challenge.
From a personal point of view, however, the most pleasing result of the week was the return to winning ways of Dick Turpin in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot on Saturday.
After two disappointing efforts in the Lockinge and the Prix d’Ispahan, I have him running to 121 in beating the improving Fanunalter (116) ¾ length, with Andrew Balding’s Side Glance not getting the run of the race and running 4lb off his current mark at 111.
Despite retaining his current rating of 124, the very top mile prizes are likely to elude him with the likes of Canford Cliffs (127), Frankel (130) and Goldikova (124) around - but he is a top quality performer on his day and he certainly won’t be out of place if he joins the 'Sussex Showdown' at Glorious Goodwood – and if by some fluke of nature the ground came up soft on the day, he might just surprise a few!
This blog appears courtesy of the British Horseracing Authority
