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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Bliss as Kasbah finally lands Group 1
This week the Arc weekend gets rightful exposure, writes blog editor Martin Greenwood. Phil Smith will also be reporting from Longchamp on his Head of Handicapping blog. We also visit Ascot's big meeting.
Stephen Hindle on a verteran still doing the business...
The big staying event at Longchamp is of course the Prix du Cadran and it was the veteran Kasbah Bliss, at least two years older than any of his rivals, who prevailed by a length and a quarter from the German-trained Tres Rock Danon.
Kasbah Bliss is probably better known for his exploits over hurdles - he started odds on for the 2009 World Hurdle when last seen over timber - but he's since shown himself to be a high-class performer on the Flat. He won a Group 3, also at Longchamp, later in 2009and earlier this year he tasted success in a Listed contest at Saint-Cloud.
His credentials going into the Cadran were there for all to see following placed efforts in both the 2009 and 2010 renewals, which followed a fourth inthe race way back in 2008, and he quickened up nicely off the steady pace to surge to the front. Given the lack of a decent pace and the bunch finish behind the winner, the form, somewhat surprisingly, looks pretty solid.
Brigantin, who was a short neck behind Tres Rock Danon in a dead-heat for third, has plenty of 113 performances on his record and crediting him with another one looked the best way to go about rating the race. That makes Kasbah Bliss 116, which is still a shade below his very best, with Tres Rock Danon improving a little on his previous best by posting 114. Ley Hunter, the other dead-heater for third, has run to a similar figure to when winning the Gladiateur on his previous start, so the level looks about right.
Several horses have at least matched Kasbah Bliss's effort in staying events across Europe this season, but few have bettered it on the figures. Not bad for a nine-year-old.
ROCK ‘N' ROLL
Stew Copeland delves into the best of the sprint action...
Even though the Group 1 Qatar Prix de L'Abbaye de Longchamp took centre stage on the European sprint stage this weekend, there were still some decent sprinters in action on these shores, with the Group 3 six-furlong John Guest Bengough Stakes at Ascot being the pick of the action.
It saw a second success in the race for the seven-year-old gelding Royal Rock, who was victorious in the 2009 renewal.
The race itself was a somewhat muddling affair, with a fairly modest pace early on and it rather became a dash to the line from 2f out. However, Royal Rock emerges with plenty of credit, delivered late on to deny the Irish challenger Rose Bonheur by three quarters of a length, in the process probably reproducing a similar level of form to his previous win in the race. That represents a rating of 108, which is slightly below the average for the race, but given how the race panned out I feel the right approach to take for now.
As for the Prix de L'Abbaye - the ratings are still to be finalised at the world rankings meeting in Paris today - it saw the British-trained six-year-old gelding Tangerine Trees lead from start to finish to notchhis first Group One success. He's shown remarkable improvement over the past twelve months and his performance last time in winning the 5f listed Beverley Bullet strongly suggested he had a much better chance than his odds implied.
My colleague Chris Nash, who normally deals with the 5f horses, had him running to 115 at Beverley and there's every likelihood he's reproduced that level of performance here. Plenty of credit must also go to Secret Asset who finished a short neck behind in second, clearly putting up the performance of his career having been rated 100 going into the race.
If there was one hard-luck story it was last year's Nunthorpe winner Sole Power, who finished to great affect a nose further behind in third having suffered a troubled passage from 2f out, resulting in being forced to switch wider than ideal to deliver his challenge. His current rating of 117 in Ireland strongly suggests that he was unlucky not to add another Group One success to his tally.
THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Matt Tester on a very interesting week to come for the juveniles...
This weekend sees "Future Champions Day" at Newmarket with four group races for the juveniles including the Middle Park and the Dewhurst.
I am disappointed that Harbour Watch met with a slight setback and will miss the races. The same thing happened to Canford Cliffs also from the Hannon stable. Each horse had three runs, looked at one point like they might be our champion 2yo but neither had the chance to prove it. I hope that the parallels continue with a cracking future for Harbour Watch.
In the meantime there is still a vacancy. Dabirsim was exciting in his Longchamp win on Sunday but will definitely not have improved on his 119 for the Morny. We have not previously had a champion below 120 so the chance is still there.
The candidates entered for this weekend are chiefly Power (117 so far), Daddy Long Legs (113 for winning the Royal Lodge), Bronterre (109+ for his Goodwood win on easy ground) and David Livingstone (115 in Ireland). They are all in the Dewhurst. In the Middle Park add to the mix Bapak Chinta (an unbeaten 109+ but absent since Royal Ascot) and Caspar Netscher (114) and there is plenty of chance that we will see a 120+ performance.
Last year the joint champions won these two races - Frankel and Dream Ahead. In the last ten years two other Middle Park winners have been champions and three other Dewhurst winners. All to play for.
PEACE MAN
Greg Pearson on an upwardly mobile youngster...
Promising 3yo Quest For Peace won the Grade 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes over 12furlongs at Royal Ascot on Saturday. The five year average rating achieved by the winner of this contest = 114, with the highest in recent years being Ask (2007 = 119) and the lowest Sixties Icon (2008 = 109+).
Interestingly the Sir Michael Stoute trained Ask embarked on the same campaign we are likely to see connections of the first two place getters choose this year with a trip to the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine later this month. Ask ran second in the aforementioned race beaten a short half head by Cloudy Knight's, in the process running to an identical rating (119) to that he recorded when winning the Cumberland Lodge and with the winner hitting a mark of 120 on that occasion it's easy to envisage the level of performance required by either Quest For Peace or Arctic Cosmos to be successful.
Pre-race Quest For Peace was rated 108, with his peak performance winning a listed contest at Roscommon when trained by Aidan O'Brien in July. I have raised his rating 6lb's from 108 to 114 after the Colt defeated 2010 St. Leger winner Artic Cosmos by 2L, with a further 4.5L back to the admirable veteran Nanton in 3rd. The first half of this race was falsely run and when the pace quickened passing the 1200m, some of the runners that aren't overly endowed with tactical speed were left poorly positioned. It would be churlish to suggest Quest For Peacewill be out of his depth in Group 1 company given his rapidly progressive profile, and undoubtedly more genuinely run contests will see him rate higher in future.
Arctic Cosmos returning from a 385 day absence after having suffered a serious leg injury last year, went into the race rated 120 and that remains unchanged despite the fact he only recorded a performance figure of 111 in finishing 2nd. His return to the track would have delighted trainer John Gosden and it's reasonable to expect the colt to tighten up significantly (in terms of fitness) - one suspects the primary objective for the campaign was not necessarily to win the Cumberland Lodge Stakes, but to ensure he came through the run unscathed and was open to improvement for richer pickings. If he is able to return to the level of his St. Leger win that type of figure will ensure he remains a force to be reckoned with in anything he contests.
Nanton was one of the horses I referred to earlier, that would have appreciated a more end to end gallop and he has been determined to record a performance figure of 104 in finishing 3rd which is marginally below his official rating of 105 (obtained when finishing 4th in the Cambridgeshire lastweek).
THE PLAYER
Mark Olley on the best of the 7f action...
The Totescoop6 Challenge Cup H'cap at Ascot on Saturday is one of the richest h'caps of the Flat season and usually attracts a massive field with the last three runnings producing line-ups of 28, 28 and 29 runners.
However, with the Champions Day fixture looming large, Ascot decided to save some ground for that meeting and narrow the straight course meaning that we only had a field of 16 this year. This ensured that competition for places was at a premium and the cut-off point meant that no horse rated less than 95 made the race, compared to 89in 2008, 88 in 2009 and 92 in 2010.
Pastoral Player has been running with great credit in big field h'caps this summer, notably went an excellent fifth in the Ayr Gold Cup, on ground softer than ideal, last month. He was due to be raised from a mark of 101 to 103 for that effort, but as this was an early closing race he was 2lbs "well-in" and duly gained a most deserved success.
I based the race around the second, recent course and distance winner Smarty Sock, and had him running to the same 102 figure that he achieved when winning a month ago. This means that Hughie Morrison's gelding moves to a career high figure of 107 and I would expect him to hold his own if stepped into Group company next season.
Redcar hosted the Listed Guisborough Stakes on Saturday and despite there being significantly fewer runners than in recent years the quality looked up to standard.
Majestic Myles was just beaten in a Listed event at York in August and I have him reproducing that form of 111 in another narrow defeat. This means that Chilworth Lad achieved a figure of 112, a raise of 4lbs from his recent Listed Newbury win.
This compares favourably with recent winners - Harrison George 110 in 2010, Musaalem 106 in 2009, Il Warrd 108 in 2008 and Appalachian Trail 110 in 2006.
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