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THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
Big guns rolled out as focus changes
WE'VE reached the time of year where the Flat season draws to a close and the jumps scene cranks up a notch.
Saturday saw the final Group 1 of the British Flat seasonand Matthew Tester gives his views on whether a star was born as Camelot cemented his position as ante-post favourite for the Derby.
A handful of the more established names among the jumping fraternity returned to action at Aintreeand Chepstow, and we take a closer look at what they achieved there too.
IS CAMELOT KING OF THE CASTLE?
Did O'Brien miss a trick? asks Matthew Tester.
Saturday saw an impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy in Camelot. He only had to be shaken up to go from last to first and he won by two and a quarter lengths.But by how far could he have won? Three lengths, four, five? He made a great impression. However, we have all seen other horses apparently cruising but then finding little off the bit. He might have won by a wide margin or he might not. So how does one rate him?
The problem for the European handicappers is that he has left us to guess. And is it fair to everyone to guess high enough to make him the champion juvenile?
In my opinion, had Joseph O'Brien asked himto win by the widest possible margin then they might have had the top-rated two-year-old. How high he gets will be decided when we all meet up in December. My international colleagues have expressed a range of opinions. You are going to have to wait for the release of the International Classifications in January to find out.
READING THE RACE
Three-runner races have the habit of throwing up curious results- especially if they are very slowly run, writes John de Moraville.
Such was the case at Aintree on Saturday when Albertas Run made all the running to land the Betfred Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase.
Nothing surprising about the winner - dual hero of Cheltenham's Ryanair and past winner of the John Smith's Melling Chase over Saturday's course and distance - given that odds-on favourite Master Minded failed to fire.
But what to make of runner-up Pure Faith, a modest fourth in a Cheltenham novices' chase the previous weekend yet beaten just a length by Albertas Run from 22lb out of the handicap? And for a few strides he looked like causing a 20-1 shock.
Saturday's event was run at a crawl - 3.70 seconds slower than the 0-135 handicap won later in the afternoon by Hector's Choice - which strongly implies that Albertas Run, a distant fourth behind Monet's Garden on unsuitably soft ground on his reappearance in the race last season, did not need to run to his 168 rating to win. And that the race-fit Pure Faith was flattered to have run him so close.
Pure Faith went into the Old Roan with a chase mark of 136, down from the 140 he achieved when impressing in a 2m novices chase at Aintree back in May. The seven-year-old picked up more than £10,000 for finishing second on Saturday - and also a rise of 6lb to 142 - which represents a decent day's work for his shrewd trainer Peter Bowen.
Paul Nicholls's original plan was to saddle Tataniano in the Old Roan but sent him instead to Chepstow, resulting in a deeply impressive eight lengths victory for this one-time top novice.
Tataniano looked a future star when blitzing Aintree's Grade 1 Maghull Novices Chase on Grand National day last year, a performance which left him sharing the 2009-10 novice chasing crown with subsequent Champion Chase hero Sizing Europe.
Training problems restricted him to just two unsuccessful outings last season but, firing again on all cylinders, the seven-year-old, upped 9lb to 169, is back within touching distance of the top two-milers.
A STAR OF THE FUTURE?
The jumps season is gathering pace and there were a couple of decent hurdle races at Chepstow on Saturday, writes Chris Nash.
The most impressive performance came from Fingal Bay who won the Grade 2 Persian War Novice Hurdle. He had won his only bumper race and this was a taking effort on his hurdling debut. He beat Baile Anrai (pre-race rating 121) bysix lengths and had Current Event (pre-race 135) a further 37 lengths back in third, although it is fair to assume that Hard To Swallow would have filled that place but for falling two out. I do not have to give the winner an official rating as hurdlers must run a minimum of two times before qualifying for a handicap mark but it is still necessary to put a figure to the performance.
This is never easy with the vast majority of runners unexposed and returning from considerable absences so I looked to the following handicap for clues. The Totepool Silver Trophy was run over the same course and distance 35 minutes later. This year's renewal looked highly competitive with 18 runners going to post and it was won in taking fashionby the second season hurdler Arthurian Legend. He had won twice last year and was making his handicap debut off 125 here. In beating Global Power and Robinson Collonges by two and a half lengths and the same I had him running to a figure of 133+ and his mark will be raised 9lb to 134.
Comparing the races is an inexact science but the splits through the contests were very similar which gives some credence to the comparison - Arthurian Legend recorded marginally the quicker time (the equivalent of a 2-3lb better performance) but Fingal Bay carried 8lb more weight. This suggests that Fingal Bay produced a 5-6lb better performance than Arthurian Legend and so I have pencilled in a figure of 139+ for his achievement on Saturday. This has Baile Anrai producing a career best that will see his rating rise to 133 and Hard To Swallow can be estimated at running somewhere between 125 and 130.
It is early days for the winner and it will be necessary to see the form of this race tested in the coming weeks but it is fair to say that it would have been difficult for him to have turned in a much better hurdling debut and he is a horse likely to have several high profile engagements this season.
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