|
THE BHA HANDICAPPERS |
Weblog: View from the team behind the official ratings
All roads lead to Ascot and Champions Day
This week we look both forward and backwards, writes blog editor Martin Greenwood. We preview Saturday's big race and analyse last week's main races.
Deputy Head of Handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill sets the scene...
So, all roads to lead to Ascot and the Qipco Champions Day on Saturday, with most hoping that the world's highest rated horse, Frankel, gives us another performance to savour in the Queen Elizabeth II and confirms his position at the head of the world rankings.
At the six-day stage, nine have been left in as possible opponents to Sir Henry Cecil's 135 rated colt. Marco Botti's Excelebration is next in line with a mark of 126. Beaten four lengths by Frankel in the Greenham at Newbury and two and a quarter lengths by him in the St James's Palace, Excelebration definitely has something to find "on the book" but is an improvingperformer.
He put up his best performance on his penultimate start when waltzing away with the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury by six lengths and then taking the Group 1 Moulin at Longchamp with something in hand. He beat
The only foreign challenger is the French-trained filly Immortal Verse who has spent the season going from strength to strength. She followed up her victory in the Coronation at Royal Ascot with success in the Prix Jacques le Marois, beating multiple Group 1-winning fillies Goldikova and Sahpresa. She is currently rated 121 (with plenty of scope to improve on that in the future), gets the 3lb sex allowance from the colts and has a devastating turn of foot. If, a furlong out, she's within striking distance of Frankel, things could be interesting.
Old war horses Dick Turpin (122) and Cityscape (121) are the highest-rated of the older horses and, while it is hard to see either of them winning the race they could sneak a place in the frame if things fall right for them. A reproduction of their recent form in the Vittorio di Capua when Dick Turpin got the better of the argument beating Cityscape by a short head to finish first, and second respectively, would see them set up the level of Saturday's race nicely.
With any luck it will be at a respectable distance behind Frankel and all those travelling in hope of seeing something special will be in a position to hail the "best racehorse in the world".
SWEET DREAM
Mark Olley reports from at home and across the water...
The Prix de la Foret is the only Group 1 race run over 7f in Europe and last Sunday's race was a real thriller with Dream Ahead just prevailing from 14-time Group 1-winning mare Goldikova.
Goldikova has a rating of 124 in France, a figure that she ran to when runner-up to Canford Cliffs in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, and I have her repeating that rating here. This means that Dream Ahead, who was conceding the 3lb fillies' allowance to Goldikova, produced a figure of 128, 2lb higher than his joint-champion two-year-old rating of 126. David Simcock's colt has suffered a couple of blips this year, but a July Cup, Haydock Sprint Cup and Prix Foret Group 1 treble is a record of which to be proud.
This duo pulled six lengths clear of the lightly raced Surfrider, although I only used 10lb as the distance looked a fair bit shorter than that to the naked eye.
The Group 3 Burj Khalifa Challenge Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday was won in an impressive fashion by Strong Suit. Richard Hannon's colt hardly came off the bridle to win and has progressed in leaps and bounds since a wind operation in the spring.
This was a tricky race to put an exact figure on, but I settled with Maqaasid equalling her 1,000 Guineas third place effort and producing a performance of 110. This meant the same figure for Chachamaidee in second, but I will be leaving her on 113 for the time being as her Sun Chariot second to Sahpresa looks solid enough. The ten-year standards for the placed horses suggest a figure of 112, but that would mean career best performances for the third, fourth and fifth, so I settled on the 110 mentioned previously.
Using a fairly conservative 9lb for the four and a half length winning margin (given the ease of victory it could have been more), I have Strong Suit running to 126 and that is his new rating.
From a historical perspective Strong Suit is the highest rated winner of this race this century ahead of Nayyir (119) in 2002, Red Jazz (118) in 2010 and Stimulation (118) in 2008.
FINDING THEIR LEVEL
Matt Tester updates us on the best juveniles...
The Middle Park and Dewhurst confirmed my view that there is not a standout colt in Europe this year. At the time of writing there is nothing higher than the 119 rating for Dabirsim. I have 117 for Parish Hall's win in the Dewhurst and 113 for Crusade's Middle Park win.
Does that mean they are no good and that we are in for a dull Classic generation next year? Absolutely not. In the previous 20 years the lowest rating for winning the Dewhurst wasthe 113 for Dr Devious in 1991, winner of the Derby as a three-year-old. The lowest two-year-old champion in my fifteen years has been Bago at 121 . . . and he won three Group 1s the next year including the Arc.
Here is the truth - there have to be as many "below par" years as there are "above par" years. We all know that. Otherwise how are you going to give credit to a crop like last year's , headed jointly by Frankel and Dream Ahead?
There are still cards to be played but when all the races have been run, if our top colt is still only 119 then it is important to say so and I do not have a problem with that.
SERIOUS PROSPECT?
Stew Copeland on next year's Hoof It?...
It may have been Future Champions Day at Newmarket on Saturday, but those present at the Knavesmire may have witnessed one themselves with the Dean Ivory trained three-year-old Sirius Prospect running out an impressive winner of the valuable 6f Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap.
A most progressive individual of late, he notched his fourth handicap win of the year showing an impressive turn of foot inside the last furlong to mow down his rivals and win going away by two and a quarter lengths from Kaldoun Kingdom.
Successful here off 101, he's improved his rating to 110 and given the manner of his victory there is every likelihood of better to come.
His next intended target is a Listed race over 6f at Doncaster on the final day of the turf season. And on his York form he will more than hold his own in such company.
Interestingly, it was around this timelast year that we highlighted Hoof It as a sprinter who looked like he would make his presence felt in Listed/Pattern company and it will be disappointing if Sirius Prospect doesn't make a similar impact. An exciting 2012 surely beckons for all those connected with him.
Comments