BRIONY CRAVEN-RUSSELL

Weblog:  Finessing the facts, the figures and the form

Game, set and match?
Or all at Sea?

Five days ago, when scanning the Eclipse Stakes entries, one horse stood out and this thought entered my mind of its own accord: Game, set and match.

Yet once again some experts choose to oppose him. These experts (most of whom I look up to as God-like beings) have already been all over this race like a rash, well and truly dissecting it to the utmost degree. It's that kind of race. Those of you siding withJohn Oxx's 'Star' will be asking themselves why would they do that? (I quite agree.)

Well . . . Fame And Glory (runner-up in the Derby and not in the Eclipse) strolled home by five lengths in the Irish Derby in a fast time: 2m 30.87s (fast 1.13). Sea The Stars won the Derby in 2m 36.74s (slow 1.14). At this point, lest we forget, Sea The Stars recorded a fast winning time of 1m 35.88 (fast 0.12) in the 2,000 Guineas,  having met the rising ground with notable ease.

Now the question of stamina is raised by some who feel Sea The Stars hasn't been properly tested. The drop back in trip is compensated for by racing on a significantly stiffer track at Sandown. Three-year-olds have won four of the last ten runnings of this race, but on the other hand Derby winners Motivator (2005) and Authorized (2007) were beaten into second place.

Throwing a spanner into the works is Sir Michael Stoute's (victorious twice in the last ten years) St Leger winner Conduit, runner-up in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown on his reappearance, just being nosed out on the line by Cima De Triomphe, who enjoyed a 7lb advantage then but reopposes at level weights. Time: 2m 6.60s (fast 0.40). Furthermore, Conduit'sBreeders' Cup Turf win displayed his tenacity as a closer.

A penny for your thoughts: one of the experts had previously said that comparing race times from different courses means 'nada'. One reason for this is differences in the topography of courses. A good example of this would be Gladiatorus's race at Ascot on the straight course, after recording fabulous sectionals at Nad Al Sheba on a turning track.

Aidan O'Brien has won this race four times in the last ten years and campaigns three, including two likely pacesetters in Malibu Bay and Set Sail. They will be bidding to set up the race for stablemate Rip Van Winkle, whose consistency in the Classics has been commendable (fourth in both 2,000 Guineas and Derby).

The strictly facts and figures race-reader might select Conduit, whereas the visual race-reader may look outside the box and Sea The Stars. Which one are you?